Nifty breaks winning streak, traders eye Oct 3 for strong intraday momentum

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The Indian equity market lost momentum last week, snapping a three-week winning streak, as the Nifty50 slipped 2.6%, closing below the psychological 25,000 mark.

The decline reflected the confluence of global trade tensions, domestic headwinds, and sustained foreign outflows, which weighed on investor sentiment.


Global concerns dominate

The week was overshadowed by renewed global trade frictions, dampening the risk appetite of equity investors worldwide. Adding to the unease were reports of potential changes in H-1B visa regulations in the US—an issue that could materially impact India’s IT services sector, which accounts for a significant share of export revenues. With global uncertainties already high, such concerns intensified the selloff in IT-heavy indices.

Foreign outflows continue

Institutional flows remained a sore point. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded more than Rs 5,500 crore worth of equities during the week.

On a broader horizon, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out nearly $21 billion from Indian markets in the past 12 months, marking the steepest outflow across emerging markets.

This persistent selling pressure underscores the cautious stance global investors are adopting amid heightened volatility, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks.

Market timing and technicals

On the technical front, the Nifty respected critical reversal timelines. We had flagged September 22 and 24 as important reversal dates, and the market displayed remarkable precision in aligning with these signals.Such adherence reinforces the relevance of time-based technical analysis in anticipating market shifts.

Key intraday time clusters (Sept 29 – Oct 3, 2025)

(Note: October 2, Thursday, is a trading holiday)

  • Sept 29 (Mon): 9:30 am – 11:15 am & 1:15 pm
  • Sept 30 (Tue): 10:15 am – 1:15 pm
  • Oct 1 (Wed): 10:15 am – 11:10 am & 3:10 pm
  • Oct 3 (Fri): 9:30 am – 11:00 am
These clusters may serve as windows for heightened volatility. Traders should particularly watch Oct 3 (Friday), which could see sharp intraday swings—offering opportunities for short-term traders and scalpers.

Nifty spot – support & resistance levels

Resistance Zones: 24,805 / 24,856 / 24,980 / 25,035 / 25,145 / 25,322 / 25,434 / 25,566
Support Zones: 24,538 / 24,482 / 24,458 / 24,382 / 24,331 / 24,142 / 23,875 / 23,822

Outlook

The road ahead suggests cautious trading. With global uncertainties and persistent foreign outflows pressuring domestic sentiment, traders should rely on risk management while navigating support and resistance levels. Keeping an eye on time clusters can help capture momentum, but discipline will be key in volatile conditions.

(The author, Harshubh Mahesh Shah, is Director at Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd. SEBI Registration – INH000009676)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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