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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Notwithstanding the 17% surge seen in Sensex and Nifty so far in the calendar year, Fed's expected rate cut in September can still have a multiplier effect on the stock market. The Fed move of holding rates steady on Wednesday night and strong hints of a first cut in September unleashed animal spirits in global bond and equity markets. While Nasdaq ended 2.64% higher, Nifty topped 25,000-milestone for the first time and Sensex rallied beyond Mt 82K. "US 10-year bond yields, which are inversely correlated to bond prices, slipped sharply lower and are on the verge of falling below 4% mark. This is a big positive for the markets as the cost of capital for corporates and consumers is falling. Riskier assets like emerging markets and metals are likely to do well," said Apurva Sheth of SAMCO Securities. Precious metals like gold and silver are also likely to benefit from rate cuts. CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are pricing ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] With return-hungry investors pricing in most of the expected boost from the Union Budget well ahead of July 23, the chances of a post-Budget rally looks miniscule if historical trends are taken into account. An analysis of market behavior around Budget days shows that in the last 30 years, Sensex has been up 30 days before and after the Budget only on two occasions - 2006 and 2017. The market has fallen on two of three occasions in 30 days post the budget and the probability of such a fall rises to 80% if the market has risen in the 30 days preceding the Budget, according to a report by Morgan Stanley. "This year, India is tracking higher on both an absolute and relative basis and if it were to hold this performance into the budget day, then there is a strong likelihood that it corrects post budget," said Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley. According to another analysis of 24 budget days since the year 2000, investors seem to reduce...