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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian benchmark indices opened flat on Monday, as gains in financial stocks were offset by losses in IT shares, amid weak global sentiment following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating on Friday. The BSE Sensex shed 60.79, or 0.07%, to open at 82,269.80, while the NSE Nifty advanced 3.05 points, or 0.01%, to open at 25,022.85. Among the 30-stock Sensex pack, shares of Infosys, Eternal, TCS, IndusInd Bank, HCL Technologies, and Reliance Industries were among the top losers, falling between 0.3% and 1.1%. The decline in IT stocks followed Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating to AA1 from AAA, citing elevated debt levels and interest costs "significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns." As IT firms earn a sizable portion of their revenue from the U.S., the Nifty IT index slipped 0.8%. In contrast, the broader markets outperformed, with the more domestically focused Nifty Smallcap 100...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Domestic benchmark indices opened higher for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, along with sustained foreign inflows that bolstered investor sentiment. The BSE Sensex was trading 405 points, or 0.51%, higher at 80,612. The Nifty50 was up 120 points, or 0.49%, trading at 24,449 around 9:23 am. Among the Sensex constituents, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, SBI, Bharti Airtel, and Tata Steel were the top gainers, rising up to 2% in early trade. On the flip side, Sun Pharma, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, and Nestle India opened lower. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that many top trading partners had made "very good" tariff proposals, with a potential deal with India expected soon. He indicated that an agreement could be finalised this week or next. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated t...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Last week, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 dropped 2.6% each, with the Nifty closing at 22,904—slipping below the 23,000 mark amid a global sell-off triggered by US President Trump’s tariff measures and renewed fears of an economic slowdown. The broader markets also came under pressure, as the Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100 declined by 2% and 2.6%, respectively. IT stocks led the decline, plunging 9% on concerns of reduced US tech spending, while the Nifty Metal index tumbled 7.5% on fears of global trade disruptions. The auto and pharma sectors also registered losses of 3% each. “Nifty broke below the crucial support of 23,141 and went down to as low as 22,857. From the recent swing high of 23,869, Nifty has registered a fall of more than 1,000 points. The next support for Nifty is seen near 22,700, where the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from 21,964 to 23,869 is placed. On the higher side, the previous support of 23...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] As history is known to rhyme, if not repeat, stock market investors are eyeing a well-established pattern: a pre-earnings rally, a correction during the results period, and a subsequent rebound. Historical data suggests that Nifty has seen an upswing in the three to four weeks before Q4 earnings 70% of the time with a clear 3%+ upside occurring in 30% of cases. However, the first 30 days of the earnings season have historically delivered flat returns with a negative bias. But what happens next? The data shows that in the past decade, Nifty has delivered an average return of 5.7% in the three months following Q4 results, with an 8%+ gain in half of the cases. The next 6 months are even brighter with an average 8.75% return. In the last 10 years, March month has been largely positive for the markets, apart from exceptions seen in 2015, when global concerns like China's Yuan devaluation and Brexit uncertainty led to volatility, and in 20...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Shares of Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFSL) climbed as much as 2.4% on Thursday to Rs 222.35 on the BSE, extending a three-day rally that has lifted the stock by 10.6% since hitting a 52-week low earlier this week. The non-banking financial company, owned by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, has rebounded from its 52-week low of Rs 198.60 on Monday. The stock had closed 3.3% lower on Monday to close at Rs 200.95 before reversing losses over the past three sessions. Jio Financial’s impending Nifty 50 entry, announced by NSE Indices last month, is anticipated to drive fresh institutional buying. JM Financial estimates that the index addition could bring inflows of approximately $404 million as funds tracking the index rebalance their portfolios. The recent uptrend also comes after Jio Financial announced on March 4 that it is set to acquire State Bank of India’s (SBI) 17.8% stake in Jio Payments Bank for Rs 104.5 crore, making the digital banking ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] In a rare occurrence, India’s benchmark stock gauge and its volatility index have moved in tandem for seven straight days. To some market watchers, that signals traders are less concerned about further declines in large-cap shares. The NSE Nifty 50 Index has lost 14% from its peak in September as investors grew skeptical of the market’s steep valuations, with corporate earnings and economic growth starting to disappoint. In recent days, the India NSE Volatility Index also slid, on falling demand for options betting on moves in the benchmark equity gauge, which comprises mostly India’s heavyweights. “The lack of hedging signifies expectations of more stability in large-cap names,” said Sonam Srivastava, founder and chief executive officer at Wright Research in Mumbai. She added that bigger stocks may fare better should the market fall further, and that her company last week switched to hedges on mid-cap stocks rather than the Nifty 50. ETM...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Nifty 50 on Friday slipped below the critical support level of 22,800, touching a low of 22,720 before closing at 22,795.90. The metals sector was the sole gainer, driven by optimism over potential tariffs aimed at protecting domestic producers from China’s dumping practices and better earnings. In contrast, Auto, Pharma, and Healthcare indices declined nearly 2%. Pharma stocks suffered a sharp sell-off following Trump’s unexpected tariff announcement on pharmaceuticals. Additionally, the auto sector remained under pressure due to concerns over slowing demand, as highlighted in the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers’ (SIAM) report. The benchmark BSE Sensex shed 424.90 points or 0.56% to close at 75,311.06, while the broader Nifty 50 index closed at 22,795.90, lower by 117.25 points or 0.51%. “With the key support level of 22,800 breached, the downward trend may persist. The next critical support level to watch is 22,500, while...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Benchmarks equity indices Sensex and Nifty traded lower on Monday, as global trade concerns weighed on risk sentiment following US President Donald Trump's warning that he would impose new tariffs this week. The BSE Sensex was trading 629 points, or 0.81%, lower at 77,231. The Nifty50 was down 187 points, or 0.79%, trading at 23,372 around 10:50 am. The market capitalisation of all listed companies on BSE dropped by Rs 5.15 lakh crore to Rs 418.78 lakh crore. Why is the stock market falling today? 1) Trump’s tariff warning hits sentiment Trump announced on Friday that he plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs by Monday or Tuesday, escalating tensions in global trade. His move aims to impose tariffs on imports equal to the rates trading partners apply to US exports, adding uncertainty to global markets. 2) Rate cut hopes fade The US President also repeated warnings of imminent tariffs, including on steel and aluminium imports, an inflat...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] India is the most expensive equity market in the world, and "no amount of handwaving" can justify its current valuation levels, according to "Valuation Guru" Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at New York University and a leading expert on valuation. In his latest blog post, Damodaran highlighted that India trades at a staggering 31 times earnings, 3 times revenue, and 20 times EBITDA in aggregate—multiples that far exceed global averages. "On a PE ratio basis, the cheapest countries of the world are mostly in Africa and the most expensive are India and China, with the U.S. also making the list," Damodaran said. The veteran valuation expert, commonly dubbed as “The Dean of Valuation” by the media, compared India's pricing metrics with other markets, noting that while investors remain captivated by the country’s long-term growth potential, valuations have surged to unsustainable levels. "To look...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] India’s headline index, Nifty, is likely to end 2024 in the green, marking its 9th consecutive positive closing. Down nearly 10% from its lifetime peak, the 50-stock index has had a mixed year, trailing major global indices like the Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite, while staying ahead of the Straits Times Index, FTSE, and KOSPI, among others. Commenting on the market action in 2024, Vivek Sharma, Investment Head at Estee Advisors, called it a "mixed bag" for Indian markets— not the best, but far from the worst. According to him, the real shift in momentum occurred in October when foreign institutional investors (FIIs) started selling in the domestic market. A performance analysis of major global indices in 2024 reveals that Nifty’s 9% returns are behind those of its US, Japan, Hong Kong, and some European counterparts. The Nasdaq Composite leads with a 36% return, followed by the S&P 500 and Hang ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] After staying in the green following a sharp rebound the week before this one, the markets finally succumbed to selling pressure after failing to cross above crucial resistance levels. The Nifty stayed under strong selling pressure over the past five sessions and violated key support levels on the daily charts. The range remained wider on the anticipated lines; the Nifty traded in a wide 1,243-point range over the past days. Volatility shot up as well; the India VIX surged 15.48% higher to 15.07 on a weekly basis. Following a weak performance, the headline index closed with a weekly loss of 1,180.80 points (-4.77%). Over the past few days, the Nifty has shown many technical events highlighting the importance of some key levels. The index resisted the 100-DMA for several days and the 20-week MA for some time; this highlights the importance of these levels as key resistance points for the markets. In the process, the Nifty closed below the ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Market Overview The markets continued to stay tentative over the past five days, trading with a weak undertone as the Nifty digested the reaction to the US election outcome. Although there were two days of a strong technical rebound, this was subsequently sold into, which kept the Nifty in a broadly defined range. The trading range was wider than usual, with the Nifty oscillating in a 721-point range. Volatility cooled off, and the India VIX declined by 6.95% to 14.47 through the week. Following this ranged trade with a weak underlying bias, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 156.15 points (-0.64%). ETMarkets.com Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the markets are not out of the woods yet. The Nifty has violated the 20-week moving average, which currently stands at 24,775. This level also coincides with an extended trendline that initially acted as support but now acts as resistance. Below this point, there a...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Over the last 3-5 years, financial markets have delivered impressive returns, rewarding investors handsomely. Even portfolios that underperformed compared to benchmarks like the Sensex or Nifty likely still outpaced other asset classes. Indian stock markets posted strong gains, with Nifty 50 and Sensex delivering 11-12% annualized returns over 5 years and 15-16% over 3 years. Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed, offering 12-20% returns. Real estate showed moderate growth, with residential properties yielding 3-6% and commercial real estate 8-12%. Gold surged, providing 8-12% returns, while debt instruments and fixed deposits offered lower but stable returns of 4-7%. Equities clearly outperformed. But as we celebrate these gains, Diwali 2024 brings with it an important reminder: the need to re-evaluate and refresh our investment portfolios. No matter how successful the past has been, the spirit of Diwali encourages us to let go of t...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Nifty Midcap 100 Index has recently hit an unprecedented high of 60,400 driven more by market forces than by robust corporate fundamentals. Currently, the index trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio above 44 — the highest level since the post-pandemic surge in midcap stocks. This P/E multiple is significantly above its 5-year and 10-year median levels, by approximately 75% and 54%, respectively, signalling that midcap stocks are trading at a considerable premium. These inflated valuations raise concerns about an impending market correction. Historically, when the Nifty Midcap 100 has experienced a sharp decline of 10% or more in a single month, the Nifty 50 has consistently outperformed both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices. Statistical data shows that when the Nifty Midcap 100 rallies more than 15% over four months and subsequently corrects, the Nifty 50 has a higher probability of outperforming both the Midcap...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Nifty Index experienced negative returns twice and remained nearly flat on one occasion following the last three Federal Reserve rate cut cycles. This suggests a contrarian trend in the index compared to the conventional theory that predicts a boost in equity valuations from lower interest rates. Following the 2001 rate cuts, the Nifty fell by 35% over a one-year period. In the 2007-08 cycle, it initially gained 30% but later plunged by 60%. After the 2019 rate cuts, Nifty returns were flat, ranging between 0% and 5%, according to a note by Nuvama Institutional Equities. "Fed rate cuts are generally in response to a growth slowdown and in most cases, the US economy ends up in a recession. It thus significantly lags the earnings cycle. Equity valuations respond not just to rates, but also to earnings outlook. And generally, rate cuts follow a period of strong growth and, consequently, elevated valuations (even at high/rising rates...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The NSE Indices Committee recently announced the September 2024 semi-annual reshuffle, affecting major indices such as the Nifty 50, Next 50, Nifty 100, and Nifty Bank. Effective September 30th, these adjustments are expected to significantly impact fund flows within the market. Two sectors, in particular, are poised for significant activity: retail and defense. In the Nifty 50, Trent and Bharat Electronics are set for inclusion. Meanwhile, Divis Labs, LTI Mindtree, Bharat Heavy Electricals, JSW Energy, Lodha, NHPC, and Union Bank are entering the Nifty Next 50. Conversely, Trent, Bharat Electronics, Colgate, SRF, Marico, SBI Card, and Berger Paints will exit the index. In the Nifty Bank index, Canara Bank will replace Bandhan Bank in a significant change. However, simply listing the entries and exits doesn’t capture the full impact. The real significance lies in understanding the resulting inflows and outflows of funds. Let’s explore thi...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] ET Intelligence Group: Dalal Street has now acquired a distinct desi flavour, illustrating the power - and allure - of equity for the ordinary Indian saver. It's no wonder, therefore, the share of domestic mutual funds in the overall institutional equity assets under management (AUM) reached a record high. Data from NSDL showed Indian domestic funds' share of total institutional equity rose 224 basis points to 20.89% as of June 2024. This increase is the highest among all institutional categories, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion for local funds in total institutional equities. The growth in mutual funds' AUM is highlighted by the fact that the expansion in other institutional categories is only a fraction of mutual funds' gains. Institutional funds currently hold approximately 44% of India's total market capitalization, with promoters holding 51% and the remainder owned directly by retail investors. Th...