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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian market is likely to consolidate on Monday, tracking mixed global cues. Nifty futures closed marginally higher on Friday with gains of 0.01%, settling at 25,081. Meanwhile, India VIX declined over 2% to close at 16.55, indicating a drop in market volatility. On the options front, the highest Call open interest (OI) is seen at the 25,500 and 25,100 strike prices, while the maximum Put OI is placed at 25,000 and 24,500 strikes. Call writing is observed at 25,500 and 25,000 strikes, whereas Put writing is active at 25,000 and 24,700 levels. “Options data suggests a broader trading range between 24,500 and 25,500, with an immediate range seen between 24,850 and 25,250,” said Chandan Taparia, Analyst–Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Live Events “On the daily chart, Nifty50 formed a small-bodied candle on Friday, indicating a pause after the recent sharp up-move,” he added.Taparia recommends that Nifty must hold above ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian market is expected to consolidate on Wednesday amid rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. On Tuesday, Nifty futures closed lower by 0.56% at 24,415. India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, rose over 3% to close at 19 in the previous session. On the options front, the maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is seen at the 24,500 and 25,000 strike prices, while the maximum Put OI is at 24,400 and 24,000 strikes. Call writing was observed at the 24,400 and 24,500 levels, while Put writing was seen at 24,400 and 24,200. “Options data suggests a broader trading range between 23,800 and 24,800 zones, with an immediate range between 24,100 and 24,600,” said Chandan Taparia, Analyst–Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Live Events “Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily chart on Tuesday, closing with losses of around 80 points. The index has been forming lower highs for the past two sessions,” he added.“For ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Nifty saw sharp intraday swings on Friday, hitting a high of 24,589 before reversing gains to touch a low of 24,238, highlighting heightened volatility. Early optimism was driven by easing concerns over a potential U.S.-China trade war, as China signaled a willingness to negotiate. This, along with sustained foreign institutional inflows, lent support to domestic equities. Sector-wise, Oil & Gas, Financial Services, and Information Technology outperformed, while Consumer Durables, Metals, Realty, and Pharmaceuticals faced selling pressure. Rahul Ghose, Founder of Hedged.in, shared his outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with index strategies for the upcoming week in an interaction with ET Markets. What is your broader view on markets? How are markets reacting to the Pahalgam attack and rising geopolitical tensions? Markets have been volatile following the tragic Pahalgam attack, with headline indices reacting to the increased ge...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian equity benchmarks continued their upward momentum for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, driven by attractive large-cap valuations and renewed optimism over easing foreign outflows. The BSE Sensex rose by 0.73% to settle at 76,905, while the Nifty50 advanced by 0.69% to close at 23,350. Additionally, the Indian equity benchmarks outperformed their Asian peers for the week ending March 22, with the Nifty and Sensex delivering the strongest gains among regional indices. “The Nifty continues to move upward following a breakout from a falling trendline, supported by positive sentiment. During the last trading session, the index faced resistance at the 21-week exponential moving average, which is positioned at 23,382. A decisive move above 23,400 could propel the index higher by another 200 points, with the next resistance at 23,600. A clear breakout above 23,600 could trigger another leg of the rally. Conversely, failure to move ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] As history is known to rhyme, if not repeat, stock market investors are eyeing a well-established pattern: a pre-earnings rally, a correction during the results period, and a subsequent rebound. Historical data suggests that Nifty has seen an upswing in the three to four weeks before Q4 earnings 70% of the time with a clear 3%+ upside occurring in 30% of cases. However, the first 30 days of the earnings season have historically delivered flat returns with a negative bias. But what happens next? The data shows that in the past decade, Nifty has delivered an average return of 5.7% in the three months following Q4 results, with an 8%+ gain in half of the cases. The next 6 months are even brighter with an average 8.75% return. In the last 10 years, March month has been largely positive for the markets, apart from exceptions seen in 2015, when global concerns like China's Yuan devaluation and Brexit uncertainty led to volatility, and in 20...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian equity market staged a strong recovery last week, with the Nifty breaking a three-week losing streak and closing nearly 2% higher despite weak global cues amid the rising threat of tariff wars with multiple trading partners. This rebound was driven by encouraging macroeconomic indicators, a fall in the dollar index, and liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). “The metal, capital goods, and energy sectors outperformed due to optimism over China's stimulus and lower crude oil prices. A fall in the dollar index also boosted investor sentiment towards emerging markets, while the US equity markets have declined due to uncertainty over Trump's economic policies,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services. This week will be a truncated one, as markets will remain closed on Friday due to the Holi festival holiday. This may lead to increased volatility as traders adjust their positions ahead o...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Global fund managers are in no rush to load up on Indian stocks even after an unprecedented losing streak has lowered equity valuations. That’s because the market is still grappling with challenges posed by an economic slowdown, profit downgrades and potential US tariffs. Traders looking for bargains within Asia are gravitating toward still-cheap Chinese equities, which are in the middle of a bull run sparked by developments in artificial intelligence. The sentiment illustrates how the highly touted stock rotation from China to India has gone into reverse as growth in the South Asian economy returns to a relatively slower pre-Covid norm amid a decline in consumption. Overseas investors have pulled almost $15 billion from local shares so far this year, putting outflows on track to surpass the record $17 billion registered in 2022. The selloff has wiped out $1.3 trillion from India’s market value. “Global investors would need to see sustain...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian stock markets are trying to inch back to life, fueled by a double dose of macro relief: a sliding US dollar and plunging crude oil prices. The past few days have seen a relief rally take hold, with bullish sentiment returning as the dollar index retreats and oil prices drop below $70 a barrel. Sensex is up around 1,000 points in the last two days, but the broader market, which had slipped into bear territory, is rallying even sharper, with the BSE Smallcap index rising 5.6% in three days. The US dollar index has tumbled to 104.2, giving up a significant portion of its gains since September 2024. Simultaneously, the Indian rupee has strengthened, boosting optimism that foreign institutional investor (FII) selling could soon reverse. Brent crude’s sharp 6.5% drop over the past four sessions—its lowest level since December 2021—provides further tailwinds, as India, a major oil importer, stands to benefit from lower energy costs. A dec...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian benchmark indices ended their two-session gaining streak on Friday amid selling pressure in IT and bank stocks. When markets resume trading on Monday, a host of important domestic and global events lined up during the week are likely to impact them. Nifty closed at 23,203.20, down by 108.60 points, or 0.47%. Commenting on the day's action, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, highlighted Nifty's continued presence in the bearish zone. "Sentiment remains weak as the index declined after encountering resistance at a crucial moving average. This bearish sentiment may persist in the short term or as long as the index remains below 23,400," De said. Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week: 1) Trump factor Donald Trump will take over as the 47th President of the United States, and global markets could remain volatile throughout the week. While the IMF has raised the glob...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Nifty 50 index has fallen 11% from its peak, signaling a sharp correction across Indian equities. Despite the decline, Kotak Institutional Equities remains unconvinced about market prospects, warning that there is "no real value" to be found even after the pullback, citing stretched valuations, limited earnings growth potential, and unfavorable global macroeconomic conditions. “The recent sharp correction in the Indian market and across stocks of all caps does not change our cautious outlook, given full-to-frothy valuations in most parts of the market,” Kotak noted in its latest report. The brokerage highlighted three key concerns: earnings upgrades are unlikely due to overly aggressive assumptions, many stocks remain overvalued, and global bond yields are expected to stay higher for longer. Kotak projected earnings growth of 16% for FY26 and 14% for FY27 for the Nifty 50, with the index currently trading at 19.5 times FY26 ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] While the Nifty has ended in the green nine times in the last 10 years, energy and financial services are the only sectors that have matched the 50-stock index in terms of positive outcomes. Both sectors have also delivered superior 10-year CAGR returns of 16% and 13%, respectively, versus 11% by the Nifty. Another striking commonality is that all three of them closed in the red in 2015 and have managed to remain unbeaten since. Financial services stocks, which carry the highest weight in the Nifty at around 34%, have given double-digit annual returns ranging from 11% to 41% on five occasions—2017-2019, 2021, and 2023. Meanwhile, single-digit returns between 5% and 9% were seen in 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2024. The index fell over 5% in 2015. With a 10% weight, the energy sector is the third-biggest contributor to the 50-stock index. As against Nifty’s fall of 4% in 2015, Nifty Energy corrected by less than 1%. This index has yielded double-...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The markets closed with gains for the third week in a row as the key indices posted gains while extending their technical rebound. The Nifty had a trending week; it trended higher most of the week. The volatility was largely absent, but the Indices stayed quite choppy on most days except the last day, where it remained flat. The volatility stayed largely subdued; the India VIX retraced by 1.98% to 14.14 on a weekly note. The trading range stayed wider; the Nifty oscillated in an 849-point range over the past five sessions. The headline index finally closed with a net weekly gain of 546.70 points (+2.27%). The markets have paused themselves at a crucial juncture. The Nifty has closed above the 50-DMA, which is presently at 24548. It is just a notch below the 100-DMA at 24707. This level also coincides with the 20-week MA placed at 24720 on the weekly timeframe. So, unless the Nifty closes well above 24720, we have to fairly take the zone o...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian equity market ended last week with a loss of over 2.5%, weighed down by earnings moderation and persistent foreign outflows. As markets reopen on Monday, a mix of domestic and international events—including the Maharashtra election, FII flows, and global market dynamics—are likely to influence market movements. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 fell 0.11% to 23,532, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2023. The BSE Sensex shed 0.14%, ending at 77,580. Markets were closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. 1. Maharashtra Election Investors may remain cautious ahead of the Maharashtra elections due to potential political uncertainties. As Maharashtra is both an economic powerhouse and a major political battleground, the election outcome could influence policy decisions and investor sentiment, particularly in sectors that are directly impacted by government actions. The Indian stock market will remain cl...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Nifty ended Friday with weekly declines of 2.7%, falling in all five sessions during the week. When markets resume trading on Monday, a host of important domestic and global events lined up for the week are likely to impact them. On Friday, Nifty closed at 24,180.80, lower by 218.60 points or 0.9%. Commenting on the current trends, Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst at Angel One, stated that it was a challenging week for investors and traders, as the markets experienced a broad-based sell-off throughout, with Nifty dipping below 24,200 after two weeks of consolidation. October has been particularly tough, with the benchmark down more than 6% so far, he added. "While the daily chart may not fully capture the depth of this move, the weekly and monthly charts have shown significant distortion, suggesting potential further price corrections, followed by a possible period of time-wise correction," Bhosale said, adding that it w...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] After gaining around 1.5% last week, Nifty is now approaching a significant milestone of 26,000 amid heavy buying by FIIs in the wake of an outsized rate cut of 50 basis points by the US Fed. The rally will depend on continued strength in banking and financial heavyweights, which have been leading the market's upward trajectory, Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said. The broad trend remains strongly positive, with the Fed signaling a data-driven approach, which supports the "buy on dips" strategy in the market, analysts say. "We have seen a sectorial rotation among investors to large caps, especially in consumption, staples, auto, finance, and realty. In the short term, investors are being cautious on export-oriented sectors like pharma and IT due to depreciation in the dollar," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services. Also read | S Naren shares his value investing mantra after turning Rs 10 lakh to Rs 5 crore ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] After rising 2% last week despite mixed signals from the global market, Nifty may hold the 23,400-23,700 zone in case of profit-taking, while eyeing levels above 24,500. Global cues, especially from the US, indicate a supportive outlook, with major indices continuing their upward trend despite intermittent consolidation. "Investor attention was predominantly on large-cap stocks, resulting in underperformance of mid and small-cap segments. The IT sector especially showed notable recovery along with private banks which outperformed public sector banks in the banking segment," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services. Here are key factors that would determine Nifty's trajectory this week: 1) FII flows Market data shows foreign investors bought Indian stocks worth over Rs 26,500 crore in June. "It appears that FPIs have realised that selling in the most performing market would be a wrong strategy. FPI buying can sustain...