Aswath Damodaran runs his 3P test on Citrini's viral AI doomsday scenario
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Veteran valuation expert Aswath Damodaran has put Citrini Research’s viral AI doomsday scenario — which triggered a massive selloff in global tech stocks earlier last month — through his “3P test”, concluding that even the most damaging possibilities could still produce some long-term benefits, though the predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. Citrini Research last month released an article framed as a report written from the future, dated June 30, 2028. It envisioned a world in which artificial intelligence takes over jobs and disrupts the global economy, eventually triggering a sharp market crash in November 2027 that sends stock markets tumbling. Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, examined several scenarios from the report using his “3P test”, a framework he uses to assess the probability and plausibility of narratives in valuation. He began with two scenarios that he desc...