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Modi premium for Indian stocks gets a hard look after elections

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] In recent years, investors bullish on Indian equities have cited the promise of policy reforms and rapid economic growth under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to justify its record premium over emerging-market peers. Now, with the leader facing coalition politics after a weaker-than-expected mandate in this week’s national election, the so-called Modi premium is under scrutiny. Investors want to see evidence that Modi can sustain his reforms with the same vigor, while keeping alliance partners happy and avoiding populist measures to regain public support. Policy continuity is now emerging as a crucial factor for global money managers weighing investments in the world’s fifth-largest stock market. Next month’s budget will be the new government’s first test, as fiscal discipline has been a hallmark of Modi’s decade in power. “People are still in a wait-and-see mode until we see what policies are likely to come up, how are they are going to fun...

global developments: They just happen to be listed in India, what matters to them is global developments: 5 stocks from two sectors with upside scope of up to 29%

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Synopsis In the last month of volatility, there are some sectors which have shown a streak of out performance. They haven't fallen as much as nifty and have been able to keep their head above the water even on the worst of days. The reason, their bottom lines are more correlated to what is happening in the country or the continent in which they have exposure both in terms of sales and in some cases in manufacturing. So, one way to take global exposure is to have a look at these companies, also it is a sort of diversification in terms of exposure to the underlying economy. Because they are operating at a global level, their balance sheets are good and in some cases, they have been able to enter amongst the top companies of the world in their sector. What matters to a metal company, be it Indian or any global company? The answer is simple, only one thing, what is happening to the chinese economy. What matters to generic pharma producers...

fii selloff: FIIs follow 'sell in May and go away' mantra ahead of election results with Rs 25,600 crore sell-off

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] By selling Indian stocks worth nearly Rs 25,600 crore last month, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) followed the old Wall Street adage of 'Sell in May and go away'. FIIs have dramatically increased their net shorts positions in index futures from 5,000 contracts on May 29 to 3.18 lakh on May 31. "The main trigger for the FPI selling has been the outperformance of the Chinese stocks. The Hang Seng index boomed 8 % in the first half of May triggering selling in India and buying in Chinese stocks. Another reason was the spike in US bond yields. Whenever the US 10-year bond yields rose above 4.5 % FPIs sold in emerging markets like India and moved money to bonds," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. The FII sell-off is also being attributed to the relatively high valuations and weak earnings, particularly in the financial and IT sectors where foreign investors have a high alloca...

D-Street looks set for Modi rally tomorrow

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Mumbai: Indian equities are poised to rise on Monday, with exit polls predicting a victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the general election, easing investor uncertainty over the ruling coalition's performance, analysts said. Benchmark indices may rise about 2% Monday as foreign investors could reduce bearish bets, giving the market a boost. Shares of public sector and manufacturing companies, beneficiaries of the Narendra Modi-led BJP government's Make in India theme, could lead the likely advance, they said. "Most exit polls are indicating a win for the NDA, which should trigger short covering on Monday," said Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice president, IIFL Securities. Uncertainty had set in over the past few weeks and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) short positions in index futures were at record highs, he said. FPIs' record bearish derivative bets and selling of shares have weighed down t...

Hedging costs for Indian stocks advance by most in four years

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The cost of hedging Indian stocks has surged by the most since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic ahead of the general election’s outcome next week. The NSE India Volatility Index has risen 88% in May, the most since March 2020. In an unusual occurrence, the gauge of options prices kept creeping up even as stocks reached record highs last week. The NSE Nifty 50 Index has since slipped and the so-called India VIX ended at 24.17% on Thursday, near a two-year high. Bloomberg The jump in swings is predictable as investors await the June 4 results. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term in office, low voter turnout and reports of close contests in some states have tempered enthusiasm for elections that began on April 19. Read: India’s Equity Rally Hinges on Modi Bettering 303-Seat Tally“As we edge closer to the result, participants do not want to take any risk and are hedging for the ‘just in case’ outcome,” said C...

Rs 1,800 crore a day! Why FIIs are selling Indian stocks since Lok Sabha elections began

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Ever since voting for Lok Sabha elections began on April 19, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold Indian stocks worth around Rs 37,700 crore, translating into an average daily sell-off of Rs 1,800 crore in the last 21 trading sessions. Reflecting the increased nervousness on Dalal Street on the probable outcome of Lok Sabha election, market's fear gauge India VIX has also shot up by about 67% to fresh 52-week high levels. Unfazed by both India VIX and FII selling, fearless desi boys are not only holding their fort but also buying the dip non-stop without batting an eyelid. In the last 21 trading days, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have spent around Rs 60,000 crore. At the end of April month, mutual funds were sitting on a cash pile as big as Rs 1.36 lakh crore and therefore have enough dry powder to absorb any sell-off by foreign investors. But why are FIIs selling? One of the popular theories on the Street is th...