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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and shifted its stance from neutral to accommodative, as was anticipated. The tone of the announcement suggested a cautious approach, indicating that the RBI is keeping its options open for future action should the global situation deteriorate. The RBI has further revised its projection for the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY26 to 6.5%, down from the previous estimate of 6.7%. While India is somewhat insulated from global tariffs, the potential effects of a worldwide recession cannot be completely overlooked. India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February 2025, falling below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the first time since August 2024. Assuming a normal monsoon, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation is now projected at 4%, revised downward from the earlier forecast of 4.2%. The trade war can create excesses in the ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The US administration unveiled a minimum tariff rate of 10% on countries across the globe, big and small. From the imposed reciprocal tariff rates, Asia and Europe on the higher end of the tariff scale. In Asia, the highest rate of reciprocal tariff is on Cambodia and Vietnam. India faces reciprocal tariffs of 27% while China faces reciprocal tariffs of 34%. Indonesia and Taiwan are facing higher tariffs than India at 32%. Mexico and Canada are exempted from new tariffs, while the previously announced 25% tariff on autos is to take effect from April 3, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to the equivalent of ~50% of combined estimated rate of tariff and non-tariff barriers faced by US exports in the respective countries have been announced. A retaliation might put the global economy in a trade war. The efforts to reach a bilateral agreement between India-USA provides hope and scope to limit the impact of these reciprocal tariffs levied on India. ET...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] As we step into FY26, consumption may emerge as one of the hottest investment themes due to lowering of interest rates and income tax rate cuts, says Viraj Gandhi, CEO, SAMCO Mutual Fund. In this chat with ET Markets, he also talks about 2 other promising sectors - private sector banks and pharma. Edited excerpts: What is your outlook on equity markets for the next 12–18 months, considering global uncertainties and domestic growth trends? Is this the time to buy the fear? Equity market outlook for the next 4-6 quarters would highly be influenced by a mix of global uncertainties and improving domestic growth. On the global front, trade tensions, especially the potential imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the new US President on different countries in early April, may invite short-term volatility and uncertainty in equities. Domestically, the outlook appears to be more positive. Recent improvements in macroeconomic data, such as inflation ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The downturn in the Indian stock market, which began in October 2024, coincided with a slowdown in economic growth and corporate earnings. The post-COVID crash rally, which took the Nifty from 7,511 in March 2020 to 26,277 in September 2024, was fundamentally supported by GDP growth and earnings. During the three years from FY22 to FY24, GDP grew by 9.7%, 7.6%, and 9.2%, respectively. This growth was accompanied by strong earnings expansion, averaging above 20% during the period. However, the sharp deceleration in Q2 FY25 GDP growth to 5.4% (later revised to 5.6%) became the fundamental trigger for the market correction that began in October 2024. The earnings downgrade for FY25, from the initial estimate of 15% to 7%, further accelerated the market downtrend. Live Events Economists have been debating whether this dip in growth is cyclical or structural. While some structural factors have played a role, the slowdown is largely cyclical. F...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] With a host of key triggers set to unfold in the coming weeks, the Indian equity markets appear poised for a structural upside, believes Vikas Khemani, founder of Carnelian Asset Advisors. In an interaction with ET Now, Khemani emphasized how this correction was much needed and how we can now prepare for a structural market upswing. He outlined the critical factors that are expected to shape investor sentiment and drive market direction in the near term. According to Khemani, the next month will bring much-needed clarity across several dimensions — including tariffs, corporate earnings, RBI’s policy direction, and SEBI’s regulatory stance. “Yes, uncertainty goes down,” he said, adding that a lot of the excessive valuations have already been corrected and earnings expectations have been pushed forward, making valuations appear more reasonable. He emphasized that a "decisive rally in the markets would happen once the environment for th...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The residential upcycle and strong earnings by real estate companies have not been enough to ease the sustained pressure on realty stocks, which have fallen by up to 40% in the past six months. Among them, six out of ten stocks in the Nifty Realty index are now in a bear market, and experts remain non-committal on whether the bottom has been reached. The Nifty Realty index is down 29% from its all-time high of 1,157.35 and has declined 20% in the last six months. Its underperformance exceeds that of the benchmark indices, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 falling 8.4% and 9.3%, respectively. “It is difficult to say whether the stocks have corrected enough and made a bottom, but they may be close to a point where they should start consolidating,” market expert Neeraj Dewan said. In an interaction with ET Now, Dewan highlighted that real estate and stock markets tend to move in tandem and that the recent correction in equities has also affect...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector is poised for a turnaround in FY26, driven by an anticipated easing of regulatory pressures and a favorable interest rate environment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, signaling the beginning of a rate-cut cycle that is expected to be shallow but beneficial for NBFCs. The move comes after a challenging period marked by high borrowing costs, regulatory tightening, and macroeconomic headwinds. The RBI’s commitment to maintaining sufficient systemic liquidity will aid NBFCs, ensuring a stable credit environment that fosters growth and expansion. The last 15 months have seen heightened regulatory scrutiny, including increased risk weights on unsecured loans and specific business restrictions for certain NBFCs. However, recent developments suggest a more balanced regulatory approach, fostering growth while ensuring compliance. Industry...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Reserve Bank of India's new Governor, Sanjay Malhotra, announced on Friday that the RBI will set up a panel to conduct a comprehensive review of trading and settlement timings for markets regulated by the central bank. At the end of the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Malhotra stated that a working group, with representation from various stakeholders, will be formed to carry out the review in light of recent developments in financial markets and market infrastructure. The panel will submit its report by April 30th of this year. The RBI acts as a regulator for both the money market and the forex market. "Synchronized and complementary market and settlement timings across various financial market segments can facilitate efficient price discovery and optimize liquidity requirements," the RBI said. Also read | RBI MPC cuts repo rate for first time in 5 years Over the last few years, there have been seve...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian markets ended flat in a special trading session for Budget on Saturday as investors saw little coming in from the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The benchmark Nifty slipped by a marginal 26 points at 23,318, while Sensex eked out a 5-point gain. Analysts say the underlying trend of Nifty remains positive and the market is facing stiff resistance around 23,500-23,600 levels. "A decisive move above this hurdle could open further upside towards 24,000 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 23,300 levels," said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. Key factors that will shape the market direction this week: 1) Budget reaction Even though the markets closed flat, the impact of Budget announcements will still be there during the week. Analysts say this will play out in sectoral and stock specific action. By doing away with tax on income up to Rs 12 lakh under the new tax regime, the government is looking to ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The strong equity performance for the past few years has resulted in greater equity investments by retail investors, improved investor sentiment, deeper penetration of mutual funds and SIPs, outperformance by mid and smallcap stocks and funds, reinforcement of faith in the strength, vibrancy and resilience of the Indian economy, and a higher degree of confidence in markets and their potential. It has also given rise to unrealistic expectations about the magnitude and timing of equity returns in the short run. The economy has been slowing down in patches for some time and FPIs have been selling relentlessly, but the continued retail inflows and the faith in the Indian economy have eclipsed the underlying ground realities. In the last few weeks, equities have corrected sharply, personal portfolios are bleeding and there is a question mark now whether to hold, buy or sell. TRUMP There are multiple sources of uncertainties. The US remains the...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] As yet another Finance Ministry insider and revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra takes charge of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from Wednesday, market experts say the selection of two career bureaucrats as RBI Governor in a row indicates the government's comfort with having a bureaucrat rather than a technocrat at the central bank's helm. "In the past, when bureaucrats have joined the RBI, we have observed a greater alignment with the government’s way of thinking in the initial period, but over time this changes with more alignment seen with the RBI’s institutional thinking," Nomura's Sonal Varma said. Pointing out that a whole lot is known about Malhotra’s views on current economic issues, the brokerage firm said three potential changes could occur under the new RBI Governor. 1) Shift towards more accommodative monetary policy With the new RBI governor from the Finance Ministry and with fresh thinking at hand, a rate ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Shares of PSU bank stocks like UCO Bank and Central Bank of India rallied up to 8% on Wednesday as a three-day meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s rate-setting panel began today in which brokerages expect Governor Shaktikanta Das to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR). Global brokerage firm Citi said that if the CRR is cut by 50 basis points, the biggest NII (net interest income) benefit would be for PSU banks like PNB, SBI and Bank of Baroda. Within private banks, it said lenders like Federal Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank will gain. Nifty PSU Bank index was up around 1% with UCO Bank leading the upside with an 8% rally. Central Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, and Punjab & Sind Bank were up about 5-6% each. Among private banks, HDFC Bank was up around 2% and was one of the biggest gainers in Nifty and Sensex. In the RBI MPC meeting, the decision of which would be announced on December 6, a rate cut is not expected but the central b...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) injected funds into the banking system as the weighted average call rate, a barometer for short-term borrowing costs, rose 23 basis points above the policy repo rate at 6.73% on Friday. Surplus liquidity in the banking system shrank to ₹84,154.75 crore due to monthly GST outflows. This is akin to a fine-tuning exercise to manage call rates near the repo rate, as monthly tax outflows drew surplus liquidity out of the banking system, money market experts said. The RBI injected funds worth ₹25,000 crore via a variable rate repo auction (VRR) to ensure that recent overseas outflows from local debt and equity do not drive up banks' cost of funds, analysts said. This is the second such auction that the RBI has conducted post its change in stance to neutral from withdrawal of accommodation. On Thursday, surplus liquidity - as measured by absorption of funds by the RBI - dropped to a one-month low of ₹8...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th president of the US. Republicans have control of the Senate too. If the Republicans also manage to get control of the House, it would strengthen Trump's hand further. We will have to wait and see if that happens. Nevertheless, given that Trump has been elected president, it is prudent to re-evaluate and re-strategisize the approach across asset classes. Get ready to follow Twitter (Now X) closely. Get ready to wake up to surprises. Brace yourself for the return of volatility. Trump's win certainly means a stronger Dollar against currencies of countries that could be affected by tariffs. Given that there will almost certainly be the imposition of tariffs on imports, the dynamics of how the US trades with the rest of the world will change. We are seeing Dollar strength against the Yuan, Mexican Peso, and Canadian Dollar today and this could continue. Adjustments in these currencies will driv...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lifted the restrictions imposed on JM Financial Products, a subsidiary of JM Financial. Earlier, the central bank had barred JM Financial Products from undertaking any form of business in shares and bonds funding due to regulatory violations and governance lapses. The restrictions which lasted more than ten months were to be reviewed upon the completion of a special audit to be instituted by the RBI and after rectification of the deficiencies to the satisfaction of the central bank. "The company is committed to upholding the highest standards of compliance and will continue to ensure that the remediations carried out by it are sustained," JM Financial said. The RBI had directed JM Financial Products to cease and desist from doing any form of financing against shares and debentures, including sanction and disbursal of loans against IPO of shares as well as against subscription to debentures. But no...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Despite recent headline-grabbing events in global markets and dovish guidance from other central bankers, the RBI MPC decided on Thursday to keep policy rates and stance unchanged. Since this decision aligned with market expectations, it had a largely neutral impact on stock investors. “Global ‘dangal’ to continue. The RBI does not seem to be under any duress to act just because of global developments," said Lakshmi Iyer, CEO - Investments & Strategy, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. Sensex and Nifty were trading flat, while Nifty Bank went up 274 points with heavyweights HDFC Bank and SBI leading the upside. The markets have been highly volatile in the last few days amid recession-related worries in the USA and the unwinding of Japanese yen carry trade. Statements from central banks have gained heightened importance following Japan's interest rate hike, with significant attention on the Federal Reserve's potential acceler...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The overall theme of the Interim Union Budget 2025 was being prudent and focusing on long term growth. The fiscal deficit for F2025 had been estimated at 5.1% as against 5.8% in F2024. There were no populist measures either, in fact the overall subsidy has been reduced by ~8%. The overall Capex spent by the government has increased an impressive 6.8x in the last 11 years. The RBI dividend of Rs 2.1 trillion or 0.4% of the GDP announced in May has added an extra cushion of Rs 1.3 trillion to the fiscal spends. (Source: India Budget, JM Financial Research) We believe this incremental gain in revenues would be partly spent in increasing rural expenditure, something which was missing post COVID era. In F2021 the govt. had increased rural spend by 38% to Rs 3.9 trillion. But since then the expenditure has been declining and is still lower than F2019 levels. After Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program (NREGS), the second b...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Mumbai: Banks are preparing for collective equity fundraise of nearly ₹40,000 crore in the second half of this financial year, show data compiled by ET. They are expected to use the fresh capital to reinforce balance sheets, mainly to support expansion. The boards of state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bank of Maharashtra have approved proposals to raise ₹7,500 crore each. Union Bank of India said it may opt for a qualified institutional placement (QIP) as well as other equity routes for raising ₹6,000 crore. PNB, Union Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra and Central Bank of India will seek shareholder approval for fundraising at their upcoming annual general meetings. "PNB needs immediate funds because they have had a strong sequential growth of 5%, and if growth accelerates further, they will need capital," said Nitin Aggarwal, banking analyst at Motilal Oswal. At "Central Bank of India and Bank of Maharashtra... gove...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday released draft regulations to rationalise norms for export-import transactions, proposing discretionary powers for banks when it comes to a 'caution list' for exporters who fail to bring in foreign exchange on time. "Where an export amount is outstanding in EDPMS (export data processing and monitoring system) for a period of more than two years from the due date of realization (including extension of the period granted by authorised dealer bank, if any), AD banks shall ensure that exporter is flagged as 'caution listed' in the EDPMS," the RBI said in the draft regulations and directions. The draft regulations, which are under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), are available for public response and feedback may be forwarded to the RBI via email by September 1, the central bank said. The RBI said that the proposed regulations are intended to promote ease of doing busine...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Equity indices climbed over 2% to settle at record high levels on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upwards the GDP growth projection. Stocks that were in focus include names like HDFC AMC, which rose 2%, Wipro, which gained 5%, and Paytm, whose shares rallied 10% on Friday. Here's what Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today. HDFC AMC The counter looks very lucrative as currently, it is forming a flag formation with positive closing on the longer time frame. The first important resistance zone will be at 4000, with a subsequent number of call writers and a key resistance zone. Above that, a rally towards the 4200 level and then the 4500 level is expected. On the downside, immediate support is at the 3800 level, where the 20 DMA is placed. Any slip below that could lead to the next major support at the 3500 ...