JPMorgan, Citi scrap Fed rate-cut bets for July after jobs data
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Economists at Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., some of the last holdouts predicting a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in July, have relented. After Friday’s release of stronger-than-anticipated May employment data, Citigroup now sees US policymakers making their first move in September, while JPMorgan looks for no change until November. “We are shifting our base case for the first rate cut from July to September,” Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup’s chief US economist, said in a report Friday. While the labor market and US economy both appear to be slowing, “surprisingly strong job growth” last month will probably stay the Fed’s hand while “waiting for more data on slower activity and inflation.” JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli, also in a Friday report, said “the recent momentum in job growth” suggests that the “broader” labor-market weakening the Fed has said could warrant a rate cut may take more than three months...