Sensex target for 2026 at 107,000? Morgan Stanley makes big prediction
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Arguing that the Indian stock market is set to regain mojo in 2026, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has set the Sensex bull case target at 107,000 by December 2026. In its latest strategy outlook report, the global investment bank highlights multiple pathways for the market, but its most optimistic scenario sees the benchmark index surging by nearly 27 percent from current levels if macroeconomic and policy tailwinds remain favourable. This bull case scenario, assigned a 30 percent probability by the analysts, hinges on persistently low oil prices under $65 a barrel, a reversal in global tariff positions, sustained reflationary policies, and robust economic momentum. If these conditions align, Morgan Stanley expects Sensex earnings to compound at an annualised rate of 19 percent between FY25 and FY28, providing powerful support to equity valuations. Even in its base-case scenario—given a 50 percent probability—the brokerage expects s...