When mini liquor bottles and single cigarette sales speak, economists hear recession warning
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Fears of an impending U.S. recession are mounting as economic indicators—both traditional and unconventional—point to growing financial strain. Consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, companies are tightening their forecasts, and market volatility is rising, all while U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to rattle investor confidence. Economists define a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity” lasting more than a few months, often marked by a drop in GDP, rising unemployment, and weaker industrial production. While some analysts maintain that the economy remains stable for now, Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of a recession this year to 20%. Beyond traditional metrics, a range of unconventional indicators are flashing red, from declining sales of men’s underwear to an uptick in purchases of miniature liquor bottles. Consumers pull back: Liquor minis and cigarettes see a shift ...