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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday as they await clarity on the Trump administration’s trade policies, a move likely to frustrate the president and anyone else seeking answers about the US central bank’s next move. An aggressive slew of tariffs on imported goods is denting consumer confidence, with households bracing for a potential spike in consumer prices and a weakening job market. Yet the latest data show inflation decelerated in March, while the unemployment rate remained steady in April. Bloomberg Fed officials have stressed in recent public comments that while uncertainty is unusually high, monetary policy is still in a good place to balance their goals of fostering maximum employment and stable prices.“Hard data is still holding up,” said Sarah House, senior US economist for Wells Fargo. “I think we’ll also hear that uncertainty is high in this environment, and they are ready ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The sharp rise in US import tariffs is expected to weigh on economic growth. However, conflicting factors make the ultimate impact on inflation uncertain. Interestingly, US TIPS have been signalling that these crosscurrents could eventually lead to disinflation. US firms not keen to reshore production It has seemed clear that Trump intends to use tariffs for multiple purposes such as to impact trade and US manufacturing, use it as a negotiation tool, and raise revenue for the US to help reduce deficit or channelize this additional revenue in personal income tax reduction. (these are the stated objectives- final outcome could be different). A survey by CNBC across 120 US companies suggests that most companies will switch to importing from countries with relatively lower tariffs (and not reshore production). Will Trump ever be able to implement reciprocal tariffs? Perhaps not Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariff plan has been postponed for 90...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday it is too soon to know how short-term borrowing costs may need to be adjusted for U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and their expected impact on inflation and the economy. Kashkari's view is widely held by his colleagues and is likely to leave the Fed on hold at its rate-setting meeting in two weeks. "It's too soon to judge what's going to happen to the path of interest rates," Kashkari told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit in Washington. While it is "logical" that tariffs alone would not reaccelerate inflation, recent high inflation means the Fed cannot ignore this risk, he said, noting that tariffs will likely also slow growth. That combination would create "tension" for the Fed, he said, since the U.S. central bank cannot fight rising inflation and rising unemployment at the same time. Complicating ma...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] “A new financial year isn’t just a date—it’s a fresh opportunity to reset your strategy.” As we settle into FY2025-26, investors are understandably cautious. While the broader equity markets remain buoyant, thanks to a growth-oriented Union Budget and improving domestic fundamentals, market volatility continues to nudge investors to revisit their strategies—especially those investing through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Here’s a quick guide to navigating this landscape, whether you’re a conservative, moderate, or aggressive investor. Conservative investors: Safety first, with a hint of growth For those who prioritise stability over high returns, options such as debt mutual funds, liquid funds, and short-term or ultra-short-term funds may continue to serve as solid investment choices in 2025. Conservative investors can also explore hybrid or balanced funds that offer a blend of equity and debt—striking a balance between growth and ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and shifted its stance from neutral to accommodative, as was anticipated. The tone of the announcement suggested a cautious approach, indicating that the RBI is keeping its options open for future action should the global situation deteriorate. The RBI has further revised its projection for the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY26 to 6.5%, down from the previous estimate of 6.7%. While India is somewhat insulated from global tariffs, the potential effects of a worldwide recession cannot be completely overlooked. India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February 2025, falling below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the first time since August 2024. Assuming a normal monsoon, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation is now projected at 4%, revised downward from the earlier forecast of 4.2%. The trade war can create excesses in the ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Japan's Nikkei share average reversed losses to end higher on Friday, as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda eased worries that the central bank may raise interest rates aggressively. The Nikkei settled 0.26% higher at 38,776.94, after falling as much as 0.6% earlier in the session on a stronger yen and worries about U.S. tariffs. The index lost 1.2% for the week. The broader Topix inched up 0.07% to 2,736.53. Ueda said the central bank stands ready to increase government bond buying if long-term interest rates rise sharply. "Ueda's comments pushed yields on Japanese government bonds lower, which weakened the yen. That lifted demand for Japanese equities," said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. Rising inflation has driven expectations that the BOJ will keep raising interest rates higher and faster, pushing yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to more t...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] UK stocks were lower on Friday, with the FTSE 100 easing from a record high, as tariff uncertainty added to investor nerves after data showed weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs growth. The FTSE 100 lost 0.3%, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 slipped 0.8% and was set to end the week marginally higher. The FTSE 100 was set to end the week 0.6% higher and closed at a record high on Thursday, lifted by upbeat corporate earnings and hopes for further rate cuts from the Bank of England after the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points. However, highlighting the challenges faced by the UK economy, policymakers halved their 2025 economic growth outlook while flagging that inflation would be nearly double the bank's 2% target this year. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said that recent strong pay growth was a reason for "caution" towards future interest rate cuts. "Forecasts were hawkish - embedding, we think, a fair degree of inflation ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Global financial-market turbulence this week sparked by a series of US tariff announcements looks like just the beginning of a volatile year, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. electronic trading survey. Inflation and tariffs will have the biggest impact on markets in 2025, followed by geopolitical tension, according to the annual trading poll. Some 41% surveyed highlighted volatility as their biggest anticipated daily trading challenge, up from 28% last year. “What sets this year apart is the somewhat unexpected timing of volatility,” said Eddie Wen, JPMorgan’s global head of digital markets, in an interview. “Markets are reacting to news headlines in surprising ways, and I expect this trend to continue in the current climate.” Traders are on tenterhooks given the lack of clarity over what impact tariffs will have on different asset classes. The annual survey of over 4,200 institutional traders was conducted last month before Presid...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Friday's market surge lifted the weak indices, ending the week on a positive note. Easing food inflation, A gradual easing in food inflation and a price hike by FMCG companies, along with a recent correction in valuation, supported the sector to outperform. Additionally, the expectation of an increase in US spending is propelling the IT sector. Amid a highly volatile week, certain smallcap stocks hit their 52-week high, giving returns of up to 37% on a week-on-week (WoW) basis. Here is a list of 8 smallcap stocks among the lot, according to Ace Equity: Centum Electronics The stock hit its 52-week high of Rs 2,381.20 on the BSE this week, giving 36.8% returns in the said time period. Sunflag Iron And Steel Company The shares of Sunflag Iron And Steel Company hit a 52-week high of Rs 280 in this week. The week-on-week return stood at 27%. Gokaldas Exports Gokaldas Exports shares hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,210, gaining 23.4% WoW. Greaves...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Indian indices have fallen 8-9% from the peak, wherein US indices are at their peak. This could be due to two reasons: a) Trump coming into power making US equities more attractive due to expected increase in net fiscal stimulus b) The China stimulus impact - which is now waning c) India centric slowdown in retail credit growth, overall economy and corporate earnings. All these concerns seem to be largely behind us and we are seeing a silver streak in emerging economic data. With most state elections behind us the Capex growth story should unfold in the coming months. The govt. has to spend ~Rs. 7 Trillion in the remaining 5 months to achieve its target of Rs 11.2 trillion in capex for FY2025, which would be a growth of over 52% YoY. The themes we would like to be invested in the current environment are largely domestic facing sectors like the capex related power sector, due to robust domestic tailwinds. In the global facing sector, w...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Globalisation is too entrenched for the world to pull back from, said Viswas Raghavan, Head of Banking, Citigroup. The potential tariffs and the boost to local manufacturing could be the growth drivers for the US while geopolitics remains the biggest worry for the financial markets, he said in an interview with Shilpy Sinha. Edited excerpts. How shocked were you when the results came? There was no shock because the market was bracing. The trifecta (white house, house, senate) wasn't expected. The market had seen both versions of governance before. So, it's not like there is someone new. There’s a lot of commentary about what’s in store, especially globalization? I'm more of the camp that globalization is not dead. We are too global already as a community.. in terms of interests, in a very digital age. You cannot ignore how interconnected and entrenched our lives have become. I don't think you're going to unwind that an...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Eight of the top-10 most valued firms together lost Rs 1,65,180.04 crore from market valuation in a holiday-shortened last week, with HDFC Bank and State Bank of India taking the hardest hit in line with a weak trend in equities. Last week, BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 1,906.01 or 2.39 per cent. Equity markets were closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "Mounting concerns over rising CPI inflation and persistent disappointments in corporate earnings weighed heavily on sentiment," Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. The valuation of HDFC Bank tanked by Rs 46,729.51 crore to Rs 12,94,025.23 crore. State Bank's market valuation eroded by Rs 34,984.51 crore to Rs 7,17,584.07 crore. The valuation of Hindustan Unilever slumped Rs 27,830.91 crore to Rs 5,61,329.10 crore, and that of Reliance Industries declined by Rs 22,057.77 crore to Rs 17,15,498.91 crore. The market capitalisation (mcap) of ITC dived Rs 15...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Indian stock exchanges BSE and NSE will remain closed for trading on Friday, November 15, on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti. This holiday will not be the only trading break in November. The exchanges will also remain shut on Wednesday, November 20, due to the Maharashtra Assembly General Elections. While BSE and NSE have declared a trading holiday on the election day, commodity trading on MCX will open only for the evening session. As per the BSE holiday calendar, trading holidays have been announced for 16 days in 2024. So far, they have been closed on 14 occasions this year. The last time they were closed was on November 1, Friday for Laxmi Pujan. After the Maharashtra election day holiday, markets will remain closed on Wednesday, December 25, for Christmas. On Thursday, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex declined 110 points or 0.14% to settle at 77,580, while the broader NSE Nifty dropped 26 points or 0.11% to end at 23,532. The current ...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened investors' hopes for another interest rate cut this year by saying the U.S. central bank need not rush to ease monetary policy. Powell said at a Dallas Fed event that with the economy still growing, the job market solid and inflation still above the 2% target, the Fed can deliberate carefully on rate cuts. While traders were still betting on a 25-basis point reduction at the Fed's December meeting, the probability fell to 62% from 76% earlier in the afternoon and from 82.5% on Wednesday, the CME FedWatch tool showed. "The comments from Powell put more cold water on what used to be a very optimistic outlook on the path for rate cuts," said Adam Hetts, global head of Multi-Asset at Janus Henderson Investors. "However, we can't take for granted that inflation and labor are in balance so this is an encouragin...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] A sense of déjà vu overwhelmed Wall Street this week, as Donald Trump’s election win gave the stock market a jolt similar to what happened after his victory eight years ago. Small caps soared, banks leaped and the S&P 500 Index had its best Election Day in history and strongest week in 12 months. The challenge, however, is this is 2024, not 2016. Things have changed a lot since then. “As Mark Twain once said, ‘History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes,’” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, said. “So investors should remember the old playbook, but they shouldn’t memorize it.” When Trump ran for president in early 2016, US equities were on shaky footing, posting their worst start to a year since the financial crisis with a drop of more than 5% in January. By the time of his inauguration, the S&P 500 was coming off a 9.5% gain in 2016 after ending 2015 in the red. The index was trading at 17 time...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The U.S. central bank's fight to return inflation to its 2% target may take longer than expected to complete and limit how far interest rates can be cut, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. In an interview with Reuters, Barkin said he supported the half-percentage-point rate cut the Fed approved last month and agreed the benchmark rate could fall perhaps by another half a percentage point by the end of this year to take account of how far inflation has declined. But he said he was concerned inflation could prove sticky next year and prevent the Fed from cutting rates as far as investors and some of his colleagues expect, with the benchmark rate potentially being held short of the "neutral" level many policymakers expect to reach. Beyond the next few months and into the second half of 2025, "I'm more concerned about inflation than I am about the labor market," Barkin said, with a...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Federal Reserve’s move to slash interest rates reverberated across the 2024 presidential race as Democrat Kamala Harris hailed the move as a boon for middle class families while Republican Donald Trump suggested the cut may have been politically motivated. The heated rhetoric over the Fed’s decision to lower its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point highlighted how the central bank — an independent institution whose Chair Jerome Powell has pledged not to allow political pressures to influence decision making — could be swaying the momentum of the 2024 presidential race with just seven weeks until Election Day. The dueling narratives also underscored the extent to which the economy and interest rates have rapidly become a focal point in the race, with both parties seeking to use the move to bolster their election standing. Trump, speaking at a campaign stop at a bar in Manhattan, framed the cut as a “very unusual number” a...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] European shares opened more than 1% higher on Thursday, buoyed by strong performances among technology stocks, while investors awaited the European Central Bank's rate decision due later in the day. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 1.2% at 514.17 points, as of 0708 GMT, and set for the best day in nearly one month, if gains hold. Technology stocks chimed with a rally in their Asian peers, and jumped 2.6%. Basic resources gained 2% after prices of base metals rose, buoyed by hopes of an interest rate reduction in the U.S. next week.. All sub-sectors were trading in the green. The ECB will meet at 1215 GMT on Thursday, where it is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets will be more focussed on comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde, due at 1245 GMT, to confirm if further rates are to follow in October and December. Meanwhile, Spain's consumer price figures showed the 12-month EU-harmonised i...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] European shares opened higher on Wednesday, boosted by the oil and gas, and the basic resources sectors, while investors awaited a key U.S. inflation reading for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.3%, as of 0710 GMT. All regional indexes were trading in the green. The oil and gas sector boosted the index, with a 1.2% gain as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting output in the U.S., outweighed worries. Basic Resources also provided support, gaining 1.6%, as copper prices rose on a softer U.S. dollar. With only a handful of economic data out of Europe, investors are laser focused on U.S. consumer price figures set to drop at 1230 GMT. Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 ticked up 0.4% after estimates of GDP data showed the UK's economic output showed no change in month-on-month terms in July. Investors also have on their radar, comments from European Cent...

[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Amid weak global cues and lack of any favourable domestic news, Sensex ended a three-week-long winning streak with a loss of around 1.5% with Friday leading the downside momentum. Analysts say that due to lack of new market catalysts and elevated valuations, upside in the short term may be limited. "Q1 GDP growth has moderated, and similar trends are witnessed in corporate earnings. Also, August Indian PMI readings were marginally below July numbers, indicating that caution is in the air. Weak monthly sales impacted the Auto sector. PSU banks underperformed due to premium valuation, while a decline in commodity prices led to a drop in the metals sector," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a bearish engulfing candle to indicate a more cautious outlook ahead. Here are key factors to track this week: 1) Fed rate cut hopes On Monday, the market will initially react to ...