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Showing posts with the label Labour Market

Risk-on momentum in stocks succumbs to mounting worries around growth

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The seemingly unstoppable stock market rally is wobbling as it confronts a horde of challenges to the momentum that's taken it from record high to record high. A rout early last month was a glimpse of how quickly things can turn bad, a sharp selloff driven by US recession fears that rocked investors used to going in only one direction. While the S&P 500 subsequently rebounded, crucially it didn't made back all the ground lost. Then, US data Friday showing weaker payrolls growth reinforced the view that the labour market is cooling and sent stocks reeling. The S&P 500 fell 4.25% last week, while the Nasdaq 100 lost the most since November 2022. Worries about the US are just one of the cracks. There's also concern about growth in China and Germany, and the implications of that weakness on earnings and prices. That's making the way forward look more volatile, even as the foggy rate path clears up and investors count d...

JPMorgan, Citi see two half-point rate cuts this year

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Wall Street banks are ramping up expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve easing cycle based on the latest evidence that the labour market is cooling. Economists at Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase revamped their forecasts for US monetary policy Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate rose again in July, calling for earlier, bigger or more interest-rate cuts. Economists at Citigroup - already among the most aggressive in calling for the Fed to cut interest rates this year - said they expect half-point rate cuts in September and November and a quarter-point cut in December, having previously predicted quarter-point cuts at all three meetings. The Fed will then reduce rates by a quarter point at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing the policy band to 3%-3.25%, Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst predicted. JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli went a step further. While he also predicted half-point...