MCX Outlook: Gold may hit Rs 1.02 lakh/10gm, Silver could surge to Rs 1.10 lakh/kg in coming weeks
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On the contrary, silver outperformed gold in June (Silver gained by 9.41% in the international markets while Gold gained marginally by 0.4%) because of the fall in gold -silver ratio from over 100 to around 92-93 (fall in the ratio leads investors to move towards silver) combined with the critical $35/ounce mark that triggered momentum and technical buying on breakout.
Moreover, Silver supply has been in deficit for 5 years in a row, and depleting inventories and a record ETF inflows of over $1.6 billion in June boosted market sentiment for the metal.
The divergence in returns from both these metals apart from the ceasefire was weak dollar index, weak US June ADP labor data which increases the odds of a Fed rate cut in the months ahead combined with robust demand for Silver in Solar Panels and Semiconductors, bolstered by AI trends.
What sets the stage for both these metals in the months ahead?
For gold and silver prices to rise from here on requires a bout of factors ranging from the new tariffs and its implications from July onwards, tailwinds of debt concerns in the US, central bank buying, continued weakness in the dollar, strong industrial and monetary demand for silver alongside tight supply, combined with commentary from the US FED, US Labor/inflation data and changes in the gold-silver ratio.
There are various projections by big banks globally for Gold and Silver, some of them are as follows.
HSBC conservatively forecasts an average of $3,215/oz in 2025, with year-end around $3,175, but warns of volatility within a $3,100–3,600 range. Citigroup sees a potential pullback by late 2025, possibly down to $2,500–2,700 if Fed cuts stabilize and economic conditions improve
While for silver, the projections across the board range from $28 per ounce on the lower side to around $50/ounce on the higher side.
Outlook
The forecasts mentioned are for a longer term, but the near term volatility will remain and we might see possible rally in both metals as follows from a month perspective.
Gold prices might find support at around $3200/ounce mark, and resistance can be seen towards $3500/ounce mark. For Silver, support can be seen towards the $32/ounce mark while resistance can be seen at $40/ounce mark.
On the MCX, gold prices might rally higher towards Rs.1,02,000/10 gms while Silver prices might rally higher towards Rs.1,10,000/kg.
(The author, Prathamesh Mallya is DVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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