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Showing posts with the label trade war

Trading Day: Market elation trumps brewing stagflation

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] If anyone wanted a snapshot of the tight spot the U.S. economy and policymakers are in right now, they got it on Friday via the University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey. The results were eye-popping: consumer sentiment expectations are now the lowest since 1980 and one-year inflation expectations are the highest since 1981, above 6%. Sentiment surveys are only 'soft' data and there is much debate whether they translate into the 'hard' activity data like retail sales and hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month the link between the two in recent years has been "weak" and he has previously downplayed the U-Mich inflation expectations figures. But the direction of travel is getting harder to ignore. Consumers are spooked by President Donald Trump's trade war and fear tariffs will push up prices, forcing them to curtail spending. If this soft data ...

Battered Wall Street short brigade is refusing to admit defeat

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Just like that, the panic on Wall Street has vanished almost as quickly as it arrived.Only weeks ago, traders from Singapore to New York were bracing for the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade war. Global markets had shed trillions in value and American financial dominance faced its sharpest scrutiny in years. Now, the investment landscape looks markedly different. Trump is touting tariff progress on a near-daily basis — helping cool stagflation concerns while pumping up the “buy America and fade the fear” narrative once more. In turn, risky assets have mounted a swift rebound. The S&P 500 has just closed out its second-best week of the year, while credit and crypto have rallied anew. Yet for all that, a cohort of naysayers is pushing back. Short interest in the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 has grown and now sits almost three times its February low. And in corporate bonds, bearish posi...

India is hot trade again as investors chase Trump-era winners

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The NSE Nifty 50 Index surged to its highest level since October this week, fueled by optimism that India could be among the first to strike a deal with the US following upbeat comments by Trump. Corporate India has seized the momentum: Shapoorji Pallonji Group secured a $3.4 billion private credit deal, and Reliance Industries Ltd. locked in a $2.98 billion-equivalent loan, underscoring the rising appeal of the nation’s corporate debt to global investors. Behind this renewed enthusiasm lies a mix of favorable macroeconomic forces. Policymakers in New Delhi are targeting what they see as a once-in-a-generation chance to integrate the country more deeply into global supply chains. Meanwhile, in Mumbai, the Reserve Bank of India’s dovish stance is also supporting the bullish mood — bond yields are trading at their lowest levels in over three years. Bloomberg “India can be a big winner of Trump 2.0 if it plays its cards right,” said Trinh ...

US softening on China tariffs brings little relief from trade uncertainty: Garima Kapoor

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Even as U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a softening stance on tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, global trade may continue to operate under heightened uncertainty, according to Garima Kapoor of Elara Capital. In an interaction with ET Now, Kapoor reflected on the recent remarks by President Trump, who suggested that while tariffs on China may come down, they are “not going to zero as of now”, leaving room for partial relief but continued friction between the world’s two largest economies. She emphasised that the evolving trade relationship between the two economic superpowers is setting the stage for a "new normal" in global commerce. Kapoor noted that much will depend on the nature of discussions and consultations between the two countries. However, she pointed out that the days of extremely low U.S. tariffs could be over. “Fair to assume that US' average tariff, which used to be about 2–2.5%... is unlikely to stay t...

RBI’s cautious accommodative turn: Policy room intact amid global uncertainty

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and shifted its stance from neutral to accommodative, as was anticipated. The tone of the announcement suggested a cautious approach, indicating that the RBI is keeping its options open for future action should the global situation deteriorate. The RBI has further revised its projection for the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY26 to 6.5%, down from the previous estimate of 6.7%. While India is somewhat insulated from global tariffs, the potential effects of a worldwide recession cannot be completely overlooked. India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February 2025, falling below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the first time since August 2024. Assuming a normal monsoon, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation is now projected at 4%, revised downward from the earlier forecast of 4.2%. The trade war can create excesses in the ...

Nifty fear gauge India VIX jumps 6% amid renewed trade tensions

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] India’s fear gauge, the Volatility Index (India VIX), surged over 6% to 21.68 on Wednesday, signalling rising investor anxiety amid a sharp selloff in global equities and renewed trade tensions. The spike in volatility comes as U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to impose “major tariffs” on pharmaceutical imports, sending Indian pharma stocks tumbling up to 6%. Meanwhile, metal stocks dropped as much as 4% after the U.S. raised import duties on Chinese goods by 50%, taking the total tariff burden to 104%. The move has raised concerns of China diverting its steel exports to other markets like India, intensifying competition for domestic producers. The growing fears of stagflation and a possible recession in the U.S. also weighed on sentiment, dragging down IT stocks and adding to market jitters. In early trade, the BSE Sensex declined 403 points, or 0.54%, to 73,823, while the Nifty50 dropped 146 points, or 0.65%, to 22,389 around 9:30 am. ...

Will India tariff woes be Trumped by RBI response?

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The US administration unveiled a minimum tariff rate of 10% on countries across the globe, big and small. From the imposed reciprocal tariff rates, Asia and Europe on the higher end of the tariff scale. In Asia, the highest rate of reciprocal tariff is on Cambodia and Vietnam. India faces reciprocal tariffs of 27% while China faces reciprocal tariffs of 34%. Indonesia and Taiwan are facing higher tariffs than India at 32%. Mexico and Canada are exempted from new tariffs, while the previously announced 25% tariff on autos is to take effect from April 3, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to the equivalent of ~50% of combined estimated rate of tariff and non-tariff barriers faced by US exports in the respective countries have been announced. A retaliation might put the global economy in a trade war. The efforts to reach a bilateral agreement between India-USA provides hope and scope to limit the impact of these reciprocal tariffs levied on India. ET...

Vedanta, Hindalco, other metal stocks slide 6% on growth concerns amid trade war

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Shares of metal stock tumbled by up to 6% in today’s session as uncertainties surround the future outlook of these companies after U.S. President Trump's reciprocal tariffs have raised concerns over global demand growth and the potential disruption of business activities worldwide. The shares of National Aluminium Company (NALCO) dipped the highest, falling by 6% to an intraday low of Rs 162.40, followed by Vedanta shares, which fell by 5.7% to Rs 414.35 in early trade and Hindalco shares falling by 5.4% to Rs 617.15. Further, the shares of Tata Steel and Hindustan Zinc fell by nearly 5.5% each. Yes Securities' executive director Amar Ambani, in a report quoted by the Times of India, explained that the unchanged 25% US tariff on steel and aluminium will increase US domestic prices. “However, exporters from Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea are pivoting to India and the Middle East,” Ambani added. Live Events As a result, India is fa...

US trade tariffs and its impact on global commodities

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The erratic and inconsistent trade policies of US President Donald Trump are challenging the global commodity market, making prices highly volatile. The recent US tariffs on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China have raised concerns over a global trade war, as Canada and China have already imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. Bullion was the asset that benefited most due to the tariff war. Gold in the key London spot market is hovering above the psychological level of $3,000 an ounce, gaining more than 15 percent so far this year. Similarly, Indian gold prices also gained considerably, with the MCX futures prices trading at a lifetime high of ₹88,800 per ten grams last week. As a traditional safe haven during periods of economic instability, the recent threat of a trade war heightened concerns about inflation and economic growth across the globe, boosting demand for gold. Additionally, domestic gold was further boosted due to ...

As Wall Street gets worried, retail investors keep buying US stocks

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Even as Donald Trump’s trade war sends the US stock market hurtling toward a correction, the individual investors who rode the bull run to record highs haven’t yet given up their faith. The so-called retail investors poured $7.3 billion into equities in the week through Wednesday, when they boosted exposure to perennial favorites like Tesla Inc., according to Emma Wu, a global quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. They weren’t riding the usual momentum upward. In fact, the S&P 500 Index slipped over 4% and big tech stocks gave up even more. But, unbowed, they also put billions into leveraged exchanged traded funds that magnify the returns on indexes like the Nasdaq 100 or popular funds like the ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) run by Cathie Wood. Bloomberg The push reflects confidence that’s built up since the Global Financial Crisis as US equities — with a few exceptions — tended to rise year after year....

Trump defends tariffs before corporate America as stocks sell off

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] U.S. President Donald Trump defended his use of tariffs and said they could multiply as he met on Tuesday with the CEOs of America's biggest companies, many of whom have watched their market value crater over recession and inflation fears. The Republican president spoke to about 100 CEOs at a regular meeting of the Business Roundtable, which includes the heads of Apple, JPMorgan Chase and Walmart . The event followed a private Trump meeting with technology company executives at the White House on Monday. U.S. stocks on Tuesday extended a selloff that has dragged the benchmark S&P 500 down 5.3% so far in 2025, with investors rattled over increased tariffs on imports and souring consumer sentiment. Monday's drop in the S&P 500 was its largest this year and followed an interview over the weekend in which Trump declined to rule out a recession resulting from his trade policies. He clarified those comments on Tuesday, telling...

Asian stocks: Asian stocks slump, dollar soars as Year of the Snake starts with bite

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Asian stock markets slumped on Monday and U.S. equity futures pointed sharply lower after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China triggered fears of a broad trade war and hit to global growth. The U.S. dollar shot to a record peak against the Chinese yuan in offshore trading, and its highest against Canada's currency since 2003 and the strongest against the Mexican peso since 2022. Japan's Nikkei share average tumbled as much as 2.3% in early trading, and Australia's benchmark - which often functions as a proxy for Chinese markets - slumped more than 2%. Stocks in Hong Kong, which include listings of Chinese companies, fell 1.9% after a Lunar New Year holiday. China's markets resume trading following the holidays on Wednesday. Pan-European STOXX 50 futures sank 2.7%. Also Read | Want a war, Don? Trump’s tariff barrage sets stage for global chaosTrump followed through with threats to slap Canad...

Has the global economic environment turned favourable for equities?

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The global economy has been plagued by multiple crises in the last four years. The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian attack on Ukraine, the synchronized monetary tightening by the central banks of the world and the Israel-Gaza conflict — all happening within a short span of four years has turned out to be a time of severe stress for the global economy. But the global economy has been surprisingly resilient. It has smartly rebounded from the massive contraction of 2020 and inflation has been largely tamed. Even though the wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue, that is not impacting global economic growth and fears of a food and energy crisis have almost disappeared. Global growth stabilises The near consensus among economists was that the US would tip into recession sometime in 2023, pulling global growth down. It was feared that the Euro Zone also may tip into recession.Recession in the US and Euro Zone was expected to impact global growth. But ...