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Showing posts with the label US economy

Trading Day: Market elation trumps brewing stagflation

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] If anyone wanted a snapshot of the tight spot the U.S. economy and policymakers are in right now, they got it on Friday via the University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey. The results were eye-popping: consumer sentiment expectations are now the lowest since 1980 and one-year inflation expectations are the highest since 1981, above 6%. Sentiment surveys are only 'soft' data and there is much debate whether they translate into the 'hard' activity data like retail sales and hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month the link between the two in recent years has been "weak" and he has previously downplayed the U-Mich inflation expectations figures. But the direction of travel is getting harder to ignore. Consumers are spooked by President Donald Trump's trade war and fear tariffs will push up prices, forcing them to curtail spending. If this soft data ...

Trump has left economists connecting the dots, and it does not paint a rosy picture

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Since assuming presidency of the United States for his second term, Trump has been imposing tariffs, no holds barred. Be it launching against the US largest trading partners or accelerating the antagonistic stance against China, or threatening other economies including the European Union and India, Trump has been imposing what seem to be blindly sweeping tariffs across countries and sectors. More worryingly, these tariffs have been imposed, paused, rolled back, and reimposed on apparent whims. The uncertainty has been more harmful to the business and economic environment than the tariffs themselves. Economists are left connecting the dots Given their whimsical and non-surgical nature, the tariffs’ role as a trade tactic can be all but ruled out. It could be aimed at bolstering political negotiation, but it seems too extreme a measure for that. ETMarkets.com Economists have been inferring that Trump’s agenda is more nuanced. That his poli...

Jobs-day shocker vindicates great risk rally of 2024

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The ever-resilient US economy is once again causing havoc for Wall Street worrywarts, who have sounded the recession alarm all year. After months of heated debate between stock and bond bulls on whether restrictive Federal Reserve policy would spur a downturn, a report showing the biggest gain in American hiring in six months spurred violent reversals in fixed-income markets that had gone all-in on a slowdown. Small-cap companies led the cheer Friday as the dogged resilience of the US labor market underscores vigor in the domestic investment and consumption cycle. A long-dated Treasury exchange-traded fund capped the worst week since April, after rallying alongside equities and corporate bonds for months. Tech stocks bounced Friday, while bets on extra-large interest rates cuts were hastily re-thought. It was just one day and the S&P 500 was broadly little changed this week amid growing concern about the Middle East war and threats to...

ET Explainer: How Fed’s more-than-expected rate cut will impact markets

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years citing lower inflation expectations and a slowing jobs market. A look at what it means for investors and Indian equities: What is the significance of the Fed's interest rate cut? The Fed's higher-than-expected rate cut of 50 basis points on Wednesday was the first since March 2020, marking the end of the central bank's monetary tightening cycle. It is also considered the start of the rate-easing cycle worldwide. The consensus on Wall Street is that the Fed may further reduce rates by another 50 basis points in two instalments of 25 basis points each in 2024. Though the American central bank's interest rate moves are entirely aimed at boosting its economy, they tend to have implications for economies, markets and assets worldwide. What will be the impact of Fed rate cuts on various markets? Interest rate cuts in the US tend to be most posit...

US stocks slip as S&P 500, Nasdaq end six-day winning streaks on weak housing data

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[hfe_template id='11223'] [ad_1] Wall Street's main indexes slipped on Friday following the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq's six-day winning streaks after a spate of encouraging economic data allayed recession worries, while weak housing data dampened sentiment. Equities came under pressure a bit after data showed U.S. single-family homebuilding fell sharply in July, suggesting that the housing market remained depressed at the start of the third quarter. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were trading lower, with energy the worst hit, tracking lower crude oil prices. The benchmark index has recovered from a pullback earlier this month caused by a dour U.S. jobs report and the yen carry trade as better-than-expected data calmed nerves over a sharp slowdown in the world's largest economy. U.S. consumer and producer prices data this week indicated inflation was moderating at a pace that would keep the U.S. Federal Reserve on track to start its monetary easing ...