Trading Day: Market elation trumps brewing stagflation
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If anyone wanted a snapshot of the tight spot the U.S. economy and policymakers are in right now, they got it on Friday via the University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey. The results were eye-popping: consumer sentiment expectations are now the lowest since 1980 and one-year inflation expectations are the highest since 1981, above 6%. Sentiment surveys are only 'soft' data and there is much debate whether they translate into the 'hard' activity data like retail sales and hiring. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month the link between the two in recent years has been "weak" and he has previously downplayed the U-Mich inflation expectations figures. But the direction of travel is getting harder to ignore. Consumers are spooked by President Donald Trump's trade war and fear tariffs will push up prices, forcing them to curtail spending. If this soft data ...